Trust in Success Potential of Revenue Models from an Investor Perspective.
An Analysis of Revenue Models and Revenue Type Combinations of German E-Business Start-ups.
Business and revenue models in the media industry are subject to constant changes in recent years. This is due to the digitalization of the media and the penetration of the internet and online applications almost across all business sectors. One first glance already reveals different and even partly opposing trends: for a long time advertising financed business models for example (combined with opportunities of success measurement and targeting) gained increasing importance (Halbheer et al., 2014), as well as "free" as revenue model was propagated (Pauwels & Weiss, 2008; Anderson, 2009). Meanwhile single transactions (by users) have developed as new central revenue type in the music industry (Bockstedt et al., 2005, Glenn et al., 2012), and it was also observable, that publishing companies (partly) successfully installed paywalls and users are increasingly willing to pay for content (Daripa & Kapur, 2001) - as can be seen, for example, from the growing number of premium users of Spotify, Apple Music and other services like Netflix (IFPI, 2016). The latter examples are showing a renaissance of abonnements (in e-business), although abonnement models, for example Bertelsmann-Club, were considered as failed a few years ago.
Against this background a certain uncertainty (rightly) is prevailing and for media businesses, start-ups as well as investors, the question arises of which revenue models are promising in the short-term future: media businesses consider which direction the adaption of the recent revenue model should be taken, start-ups consider which business model to choose for launching and investors consider which business models promise the highest returns.
There are diverse possibilities to predict future success (more or less reliable): On the one hand you can imply on future success from proven procedures in the past. On the other hand, you can extrapolate developments in the last decades and perpetuate developments by using statistical data or conducting and evaluating interviews with experts. This article is premised on a treatise, in which the behaviour (of investors and therefore experts) in the short-term past and present is observed to imply on future success (of revenue models): thereby present expectations of investors are linked with revenue model success in the future.
According to that, for this paper "success" is not defined as realised turnover, profit or rate of return as usual, but as attractiveness of the revenue model for investors - or in other words - as expected future success of a revenue model.
Hence, this article follows two goals:
(1) To provide an overview over revenue models which are used in German e-business start-ups.
(2) To identify successful revenue models with regard to the acceptance of investors (and therefore the expected future success).
At this point the underlying treatise is linked to the literature review of Lambert and Davidson and their identified gap in research. The authors reveal that there are numerous empirical studies concerning the measurement and description of the connection between business models and performance across all business sectors nowadays, but "there is no empirical research that aims to predict firm success" (Lambert & Davidson, 2012).
Vortrag auf Veranstaltung: Conference of the International Media Management Academic Association - IMMAA DISRUPTION IN MEDIA INDUSTRIES: MANAGEMENT AND EDUCATION CHALLENGES
Veranstaltungsort: Seoul. Korea
Datum: 27.10.2016 bis 29.10.2016
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